By Steve Crane | Editor-in-chief
“Overall, this forecast does reflect continued resilience despite real economic uncertainty and real challenges on a day-to-day basis for Marylanders, Maryland families, and small businesses. Taken together, these numbers show a mixed picture. Our revenues are stronger than expected, but paycheck-related growth is slowing while prices continue to rise, and we certainly cannot examine these numbers in a vacuum.” - Comptroller Brooke Lierman, on new budget projections released Thursday by the Board of Revenue Estimates.
Happy Friday — is it nver not happy? We have a lot of numbers stories for you today, so we hope you’ve had your morning wake-up beverage of choice.
Maryland should bring in about $320 million more than expected this year, according to new projections from the Board of Revenue Estimates. But the state also faces uncertainties and some possible financial potholes in the upcoming year, the board said Thursday. Bryan P. Sears has that story.
Bryan also reports on a poll from supporters of Question 3, the proposed constitutional amendment that would lift many restrictions on how the state draws congressional districts. This poll, from supporters of the question, comes just days after opponents released a poll favorable to their cause. But the latest poll finds that voters may be confused by the ballot question wording.
The Blueprint for Maryland’s Future is a comprehensive — and costly — multiyear reform plan for the state’s schools. It has long been a target of budget hawks, but it is particularly so next year when they state faces up to a $3 billion budget gap. Against that backdrop, the board overseeing implementation of the Blueprint is eyeing some revisions, as William J. Ford reports.
Those stories, plus headlines from the week, are below. Sip your beverage of choice and enjoy!
Comptroller Brooke Lierman, left, and Treasurer Dereck Davis, members of the Maryland Board of Revenue Estimates, in a file photo. The panel adopted a new forecast that ads $320 million to the state's revenue projections, but also raises some concerns. (File photo Bryan P. Sears/Maryland Matters)
By Bryan P. Sears
Maryland's revenue forecast for the current year has improved and a first look at the coming fiscal year shows some modest improvement despite a "mixed picture" of economic indicators.
Those projections, released Thursday by the Board of Revenue Estimates, added $320 million to the board's revenue forecast from March. But it also highlighted concerns about growing inflation and a projection that tax withholdings in the first half of the year would grow at half the rate of the same period a year ago.
Despite the upward revision, to more than $27.4 billion, the new outlook represents a decline of a little less than 1% "on an ongoing basis" compared to fiscal 2026, according to board Director Robert Rehrmann. He said the dip is not due to any recession forecasts as much as a “collection of unusual events," such as an unexpected windfall in estate taxes last year, which included a single tax payment of $260 million.
Koen Hawk, a third grade student at Arbutus Elementary School in Baltimore County, colors on the first day of school Aug. 31. (Photo by William J. Ford/Maryland Matters)
By William J. Ford
The board overseeing implementation of Maryland's sweeping education reform plan could propose some changes to the plan, even as another looming budget shortfall makes it a likely target for cuts to some lawmakers next year.
A few of the changes being eyed by that Blueprint for Maryland’s Future Accountability and Implementation Board include adding more pathways for educators to achieve National Board Certification or other academic accreditation; providing funding for more college and career readiness classes; and conducting a study to assess how much to increase the base level of per pupil funding. Those recommendations and more were discussed by board members at their meeting last week and could be finalized when the board meets again next month.
They come as the state faces a projected $3 billion budget gap for the upcoming fiscal year, about $1.8 billion of which is tied to education under the Blueprint, according to the Maryland Associations of Counties. The projected budget shortfall for fiscal 2028 also comes in the first year in which Blueprint costs will exceed dedicated revenues. To cover the balance, the state will have to dip into the general fund, as a first-in-the-nation digital ad tax meant to help pay for the education plan remains in legal limbo.
A new poll finds that a ballot question related to a constitutional amendment that would eliminate state standards in congressional redistricting is hard for voters to understand even after the Supreme Court of Maryland rewrote the original question after finding it was misleading. (Photo Bryan P. Sears/Maryland Matters)
By Bryan P. Sears
A ballot question asking Maryland voters to approve a sweeping change to the state constitution on congressional redistricting may be too convoluted for most voters to understand.
One in four voters in a new poll released by Fight Back Maryland, which supports passage of Question 3, were undecided when asked about the proposed constitutional amendment that would remove state standards for drawing congressional districts. The reason appears to be the amendment itself.
The poll, released Thursday, said that when people were read the question as it appears on the ballot, 40% supported it and 35% said they opposed it, while 25% were undecided. But when the same voters were provided with a "positive messaging statement" and read the question, undecideds dropped to 11% and support rose to 53%. The Fight Back Maryland poll contradicts one released earlier this week by Protect Maryland Votes, a group that opposes the change. The earlier poll showed a plurality of voters opposed Question 3.
IN OTHER NEWS
Trump back to Supreme Court over deportations: The White House made an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to allow rapid third-country deportations of noncitizens to continue, after an appeals court blocked the policy last week.
Senate Democrats fall short on War Powers vote: Four GOP senators joined Democrats to vote for a War Powers resolution reining in President Donald Trump’s conflict in Iran, but it still was not enough, as the measure failed on a 49-50 vote.
Error in Montgomery voter guides: Voter information guides in 11 of Montgomery County's 257 precincts will be reprinted and mailed out, after voters reported errors regarding polling places and party affiliation information in the first batch.
MATTERS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED
The Tawes pilgrimage: The rains that threatened the festivities had stopped by noon and hundreds showed up on a brisk and windy first day of fall for the J. Millard Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in Crisfield, an annual pilgrimage for campaigns and candidates.
Data center task force: Gov. Wes Moore is creating a state task force to examine new data center proposals and advise local jurisdictions on whether the projects meet state standards, but he insisted that final say on projects will still rest with local governments.
Falling SNAP enrollment: Almost 40,000 Marylanders lost access to food assistance over the past year, just some of the tens of thousands of Americans who continue to lose access to SNAP benefits monthly, as Congress debates slowing down food stamp cuts.
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